Mark Carney, the newly elected Canadian Prime Minister, who recently won a leadership contest of the Liberal Party to replace Justin Trudeau, has significantly increased his chances of winning the next federal election according to Polymarket bettors.
(Polymarket)
Carney’s chances of winning the upcoming Canadian election have risen to 49%, up from 26% a month ago. Meanwhile, Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s odds have decreased to 51% from 72% in February.
(Polymarket)
The next Canadian federal election is set to take place on October 20, 2025.
If the opposition Conservatives and NDP jointly vote against the minority Liberal government on a confidence motion after Parliament resumes from prorogation on March 24, requested by Trudeau on Jan. 6, the government would fall, triggering an election under Canada’s Westminster system.
Despite the delay between prediction markets and polls, Carney closing the gap against Poilievre on Polymarket reflects the trends seen in polls. According to Canadian pollster Nanos Research, the Conservatives hold just a one percentage point lead over the Liberals, down from a 16-point lead a month ago based on a polling average.
Observers attribute this shift to trade threats from the U.S., with Canadians favoring Carney’s business acumen and central bank experience over his opponent.
This contrasts with last year’s U.S. election, where prediction markets consistently showed Donald Trump leading his Democratic opponents, a result that surprised those reliant on mainstream news sources.
Crypto on the Canadian campaign trail?
Crypto doesn’t appear to be a major focus of the hypothetical Canadian election. While Poilievre holds a Canadian-issued BTC ETF and has made pro-blockchain and crypto comments, most campaign rhetoric revolves around the trade war.
Similarly, Carney, who has expressed mixed views on crypto during his tenure as Bank of England governor, has not yet addressed the topic in his new role as Liberal leader.
